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B.L.U.F.:  Improvements are seen across the board . CONCLUSION: Ongoing vigilance of the more populated states keeps new mortality rates low. This suppression of new cases, led by New York Metro, outweighs the increases in deaths in rural states. Projected death toll by election day of 240,000 and by the end of the first year (i.e., 28feb21) of the American epidemic of 315,000. REVIEW Rural Spread. As noted in red font on the study of the thirty-three states and six territories, the increases in positivity rates -- particularly substantial ones in Arkansas, Idaho, Iowa, Nevada, and South Dakota -- indicate the likely spread of infections into more rural states.  The second wave may have started but appears to be low thus far. For example, the five states mentioned with deteriorating positivity rates have mortality run rates between 1-2% versus 2.9% for the United States; they account for 3.8% of the population and 2.3% of the deaths. Mortality Rates. The mortality run rates...

BACK TO CAMPUS: ¿SPECIAL or SPITTLE?  B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front): The second wave in Europe may be starting in the United States. Mortality rates in the U.S. remain level at 3.0% for the run-rate and 6.0% for the static pool rate. Testing reveals some signs of the second wave in the South and Southwest as well as Midwest and pockets of the Northeast. GLOBAL REVIEW   The three big issues in the United States this week include a lagging testing regimen with no meaningful resolution  likely in the near-term; the election in November; and, the rush toward a vaccine. Despite mixed messages, the earliest roll-out date of a vaccine to the general population appears to be next Summer. Even that ‘conservative’ estimate for a vaccine looks to be aggressive. Supply and distribution chain constraints (e.g., deep-freeze storage during delivery) make a speedy miracle cure less likely. The timing of vaccine use remains critical since the United States is still f ar away from...

  Hard National Security Choices https://www.lawfareblog.com/collusion-reading-diary-what-did-senate-intelligence-committee-find      SUPPORT Monday, September 7, 2020 A Collusion Reading Diary: What Did the Senate Intelligence Committee Find?  By  Todd Carney ,  Samantha Fry ,  Quinta Jurecic ,  Jacob Schulz ,  Tia Sewell ,  Margaret Taylor ,  Benjamin Wittes Friday, August 21, 2020, 4:41 PM The fifth and final volume of the Select Intelligence Committee’s bipartisan  report  on Russian interference in the 2016 election is an incredibly long and detailed document. At a whopping 966 pages, volume 5 alone is more than twice the length of the Mueller report, and it covers a great deal more ground. It is important for another reason: Along with the shorter volumes 1-4, the Senate’s report is the only credible account of the events of 2016 to which Republican elected officials have signed their names. McConnell, in the sa...

Opinion September 12, 2020 Good morning. I’m Paul Thornton, and it is Saturday, Sept. 12, 2020. Let’s take a look back at the week in Opinion. This was an important week for the Los Angeles Times as an institution. Surprising no one, the editorial board  endorsed Democrat Joe Biden for president , a recommendation that really should not need to be made when his opponent is a crypto-fascist with a Twitter addiction. But the editorial board did a lot more than select Biden because he isn’t President Trump; rather, its endorsement was a full-throated statement of support, praising the former vice president as the ideal leader for a nation and a government damaged almost beyond repair . (And did you know that supporting Democratic candidates is a relatively new trend for The Times? Editorial page editor Sewell Chan  delves into the history of what was once a reliably conservative institution .) But I’d be misleading you if I gave you the impression that the election  feels...