NOTES

  NOTE: ¡Happy Thanksgiving, everybody! WARNING: a political rant is on the way B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up front) : cursory glance at the current events for another week of the coronavirus contagion. A political 'comment' (ahem) on a questionable ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court in the Archdiocese of Brooklyn case. A Tribute to First Responders   (link) Got pandemic fatigue? Go cry in your beer. Imagine illness, burn-out, risking the welfare of loved ones to serve the needs of others. That is what our medical first responders -- E.M.T.s, R.N.s, M.D.s, P.A.s, and other care-givers -- endure. This article is heart-felt; God be with these good people, always. Quick Data Discussion The data are confusing this week; a little unsettled. As a an amateur observer, I defer to epidemiologists and other experts on the look forward. Reviewing these data, I note the following numbers: While testing results improved, it is difficult to tell what they say, since the level of testing has not...

  B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front) : hospital admittances are at their highest since the epidemic began complemented by a 1-2% daily growth in the number of critical-care patients; daily mortality is at the three-quarters the peak-level of last Spring. American politics is imposing consequences. NOTE:  the basis for data now aggregates a half-dozen sources –  Johns Hopkins ,  Microsoft ,  The New York Times ,  Worldometers , and The Atlantic . NOTE:  this longer essay accounts for pure data dumps the next two weeks because of Thanksgiving and the monthly cluster letter to my family. INTRODUCTION My base case death toll of 335,301 victims at the end of one year (i.e. at 28feb21 05mar21, to line up with the closing letter to friends and familiares), projected almost eight months ago, is and has been obsolete. The University of Washington has released fresh and comprehensive projections this week for first-year deaths into March 2021 totalling 47...

NOTE: Worldometer mistated the critical care patients last Friday, likely by entering the infections per million calculation into the critical care patients column. The real calculation was approximately 19,838 (as an interpolation between 12nov20 and 14nov20). The text has been revised. B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front) : the U.S. epidemic’s second wave has accelerated shockingly, though the sharp rise in leading indicators of Friday have yet to be confirmed by subsequent performance. The numbers from this week alarm many people, including President-elect Biden as well as Drs Fauci and Birx. WEEKLY OVERVIEW The coronavirus contagion migrated from crisis to catastrophe this week. Friday the 13th lived down to its name with truly sobering numbers as the number of critical care patients has been climbing almost every day for the last month, now reaching a daily rate of 1-2%. Hospitalizations have risen consistently at a 2.2% daily clip for the past month. The tricky, ominous, part here...

  B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front) : Truly a data dump this week for the monthly letter on family clusters . Bellwether states expanded to ten with addition of Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Epidemic second wave accelerating to possible warp speed.  INTRODUCTION The Centers for Disease Control (C.D.C.) forecast up to 30,000 deaths over the next three-to-four weeks, backing the grim warning given by Dr Deborah Birx of the Coronavirus Task Force. The spread of the coronavirus contagion is accelerating in the upper Midwest, while other states are seeing their incidence and mortality rates re-accelerate after a month or two of slowing growth.  Only thirteen of the fifty-five states and territories enjoy positivity rates below the 5% threshold (for two weeks) recommended by the World Health Organization for economies to re-open. POLITICAL PRESSURES DURING ELECTION WEEK Since late October, the Trump Administration has ceased trying to control the ep...

AMERICA's election: why it has to be Biden Donald Trump has desecrated the values that make America a beacon to the world THE COUNTRY that elected Donald Trump in 2016 was unhappy and divided . The country he is asking to re-elect him is more unhappy and more divided. After almost four years of his leadership, politics is even angrier than it was and partisanship even less constrained. Daily life is consumed by a pandemic that has registered almost 230,000 deaths amid bickering, buck-passing and lies.  Much of that is Mr Trump’s doing, and his victory on November 3rd would endorse it all. Joe Biden is not a miracle cure for what ails America. But he is a good man who would restore steadiness and civility to the White House. He is equipped to begin the long, difficult task of putting a fractured country back together again. That is why, if we had a vote, it would go to Joe. King Donald Mr Trump has fallen short less in his role as the head of America’s government than as the he...