NOTES

  B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up front) : Not much new to report; at a possible inflection point. Biggest challenge appears to be cultural aversion to tracing surveys and pandemic fatigue; warnings coming in from Europe. NOTE: the basis for data now aggregates four sources – Johns Hopkins , Microsoft , The New York Times , Worldometers . Introduction News is mixed this week as America’s second wave may mimic Europe’s spike . Data collected conflict on post-infection immunity (i.e., five months versus three ), declining mortality versus new mutations , and some possible treatments being deferred (e.g., Eli Lilly ), perhaps due to cyber-attacks . One bright spot on cures: Regeneron’s testing of its anti-body hybrid drug indicates preliminary effectiveness among eight hundred test subjects. One must remember two over-riding facts of life-&-death in 2020: that this epidemic is expected to have a high penetration and low mortality rates; as well as, that miracle cures , lik...

  Opinion October 24, 2020 Good morning. I’m Paul Thornton, and it is Saturday, Oct. 24, 2020. In-person voting begins in parts of Los Angeles County today;   check here   to find your nearest vote center. Let’s take a look back at the week in Opinion. Over the last four years or so, we’ve been instructed by pro-Trump conservatives to focus on what he does, not what he says. This was always a disingenuous way to defend the president, but as a substance-over-style argument, it actually served a purpose at the last debate. Because President Trump was on his best behavior Thursday night after his extended temper tantrum with Joe Biden three weeks ago, we could see clearly what the president wants to do the next four years without the distraction of his adolescent blurts and gestures. And sadly for Trump (and the rest of us, because he is still our president), the substance of his arguments is every bit as ugly as his style. The Times’ editorial board noted that Trump’s behav...

  B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front) : talk of herd immunity and focussing almost exclusively on a vaccine is setting the United States up to  face a deadly duo : a combination of a flu season with a second coronavirus wave. NOTE: there is a second wave in Europe , slightly ahead in time and momentum of that in the U.S. Nevertheless, relative to populations, the death toll in the United States remains substantially higher than the level endured by Europe. The overall death rates remain low for now (i.e., roughly one-eighth the level of the final U.S. rate for the 1918 Flu) at this point in the pandemic sweeping across Europe and the Americas. Overview of the week The U.S. recorded the highest day of confirmed coronavirus cases since the epidemic hit the country last Winter; the nation is suffering daily infections at 7-8x the level of control recommended by Dr Fauci of 10,000 cases per day. Deaths surged to 1,101 on Thursday (i.e., as an average of data reported by the New Yor...

Opinion October 17, 2020 Good morning. I’m Paul Thornton, and it is Saturday, Oct. 17, 2020. Let’s take a look back at the week in Opinion. Actually, let’s go further back — to roughly this time four years ago. I was writing   opinion pieces   and   newsletters   that suggested Donald Trump, then a former reality television star and soon-to-be presidential also-ran, still had a statistically significant chance of spoiling what seemed the inevitable victory of the clear future president Hillary Clinton. The warnings were earnest and ominous, owing to Trump’s operatic awfulness and the fact that he was the second-most likely individual to ascend to the presidency. Still, drowning the warnings out was a sense of dismissiveness — an inability to imagine a modern, enlightened society in which the bully gets the prize and the bigot leads. Fully aware that the bigot now leads and is once again predicted to lose in November, I segue to today, knowing this may tempt fate: It ...

B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front) . Leading indicators continue to rise in the second wave but not yet rapidly enough to imply an acceleration. Case counts are rising, as community spreading extends slowly into more rural states. ALERT #1 The Centers for Disease Control ( the C.D.C. ) estimate some 230,000 deaths by the week of the 2020 election and the University of Washington projects upwards of 400,000 deaths by February 2021. The base case guesstimated by me for the first year of the pandemic, ending 05mar21 (pushed back by a week to accommodate the timing of monthly cluster analyses), remains 336,000. (Please note that my predictive end product results from offsetting mis-estimates for penetration and mortality rates.) BELLWETHER STATES Infection growth rates remained manageable, though the rural spread accelerated confirmed cases in Tejas and Oklahoma. Deaths grew by 2.2% across the country; Oklahoma and Florida doubled that growth in fatalities with the spread into rural areas...

B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front): numbers continue to improve nationally, particularly in the bellwether states. These positives shroud a quickening spread through rural areas. Though the death toll is high after the first wave, states appear to be managing the emerging second wave well. INTRODUCTION: Update on President Trump With the attendant publicity, the illness and hospitalisation of the President give one a peek into what (s)he can expect – in treatment, if not alacrity – should that person fall prey to the disease. The President’s ordeal presents a case study. Expertise and learning curves have kicked in for segmented mitigation. Specifically, President Trump underwent the following treatments in the following order: pre-hospital care in being diagnosed almost immediately, followed by; experimental anti-body drug aimed at preventing fresh infections from progressing, currently in initial testing, but granted to President Trump, along with a very few others, for reasons...