NOTES

    December 25, 2020 My dearest darling John: Who ever in the whole world would dream of getting a real Partridge in a Pear Tree? How can I ever express my pleasure. Thank you a hundred times for thinking of me this way. My love always, Agnes ======================================================== December 26, 2020 Dearest John: Today the postman brought your very sweet gift. Just imagine two turtle doves. I'm just delighted at your very thoughtful gift. They are just adorable. All my love, Agnes ========================================================= December 27, 2020 Dear John: Oh! Aren't you the extravagant one. Now I must protest. I don't deserve such generosity, three French hens. They are just darling but I must insist, you've been too kind. All my love, Agnes ========================================================= December 28, 2020 Dear John: Today the postman delivered four calling birds. Now really, they are beautifu...

In remembrance of five of my fellow countrymen taken from us this week by this terrible virus. Average age of seventy-seven; median of seventy-one years old. From Illinois to Florida. Two immigrants; one Native American. An attorney, a social worker, a warehouse manager. G-d, what an awful week to depart. B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front) : A pause before the storm. Blowing right past what were deemed to be conservative estimates for deaths at the end of one year. INTRODUCTION A brief review of the data for the week with a focus on the three last places where I have lived since I still enjoy many friendships in Alabama, México, and Tunisia. The period under review saw some improvement in the COVID epidemic toward week's end. That is not expected to last long.  Base-case projections for total deaths during the first year will be surpassed some sixty-six days ahead of the end-date. Hospitals are already strained, and the anticipated Christmas surge may sink them. The United States m...

In remembrance of five Americans struck down this week by the vicious virus, Three women, two men. A Native American Elder and one nun.  From thirty-seven to eighty-six years old. Two artists, a pastoral care provider for children, a church builder, and a journalist. Average age of fifty-seven and median of seventy-three. Ranging from Michigan to the Dakotas. 🙏 B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front) : another adverse week for the United States , with accelerating penetration and more deaths, tracking with University of Washington estimates . AGAIN and ALWAYS: lethality lies primarily in transmission rather than mortality run rates. Otherwise, modest improvements in positivity rates. NOTE: my beloved Tunisia fared well in the first wave but is struggling in this second wave as more patients strain the two-tiered health system placing her with the second highest fatality rate relative to population in Africa. The problems are similar to those of the United States during her second ...