NedNotes (not blog): weekly COVID round-up 11sep20

In remembrance of 11th September 2001  

B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up front): trends indicate positive, if uneven, performance as new miniature hot spots emerge with states and second waves may be forming. The bellwether states showed strong progress in Oklahoma (1% mortality run rate), California (2.3% run rate), and Tejas (2.8% fatality rate), each below the average of 3.0%. Final mortality levels likely to come in below that base case projected in April 2020; mortality run rate may be approaching ultimate level as it has remained a 3.0% for the better part of the last month.

Death rates remain uneven, with improvements over the Labour Day week-end only to record one of the highest daily death rates on Wednesday. Among the bellwether states of the South and Southwest (S./S.W.), Florida continues to struggle, with a third of its mortality in August; that pace appears to be slowing with marginal daily positivity rates at 6% (14% cumulative).

New cases continue to overwhelm Southern Texas just as Austin is cutting support programmes due to a $5 billion revenue shortfall attendant to the lock-down crashing the economy. California has improved substantially, cutting hospitalisations, new confirmed cases and positivity rates in half in recent weeks. In the East, the region hit hardest in the Spring, New York is now re-opening restaurants.

On the international front, India’s spike continues as she has surpassed Brazil in confirmed cases, now ranking second behind the United States. The United Kingdom continues to struggle with COVID-19. The tribulations for London resemble those of the United States with repeated spikes in cases undermining the relaxation of measures; progress remains halting.

Academic research is accumulating on COVID’s operation within the afflicted’s body with two ominous findings. First, researchers have found that the coronavirus evidently attacks a different set of amino acids (bradykinin). This version is primarily a cardio-vascular ailment that can also inflame acids in the lungs congealing them into soft solids, leaving the victim, in effect, to ‘breathe through jello’.

Other research finds that, if the virus infiltrates the brain, it uses the brain cells to replicate itself. ln doing so, the virus cuts of the oxygen supply and kills of adjacent cells to damage the brain material. What strikes one most is the apparent versatility of attack in different parts of the body, as if a simple R.N.A. strand operates with a programmed intelligence.

Two other issues are emerging. Roughly 15% of COVID-19 sufferers continue to exhibit symptoms at least three months after the coronavirus itself has left the body. This may be particularly true among younger victims who are close to asymptomatic. The virus appears again to have a programmed intelligence to be passive aggressive. Lung tissue damage is reported to linger long after the illness itself; hopefully this does not occur with brain tissue.

As always, two other topics remain ‘hot’: politicisation of the pandemic and the hunt for a vaccine. Vaccines take several years due to prudent protocols. Accelerated protocols may not circumvent such testing constraints as a leading vaccine candidate has had a hiccup in its testing. Leading science experts are using social media to counter misinformation flowing through those channels to overcome resistance to vaccines, particularly in remote areas and among minorities.