NedNotes (not BLOG): 31july20 general COVID numbers

OVERVIEW of the WEEK in the U.S.
Conclusion. Brace yourselves laddies and lassies! Politics and pandemics do not mis well.

NOTE: next week will be a micro-analysis of the family clusters of Pittsburgh, New York metro, Detroit metro, Baltimore-Annapolis, Boston-Cape Cod, Philly metro, Chicago and Colorado. The next macro analysis will be in two weeks. Congratulations to my first cousin (once removed), Mr George Henry Kolarchick. From Birmingham, Michigan, my studly cousin is matriculating at the University of Michigan; when he arrives in Ann Arbor remains unclear.

An uncertain week under review. During the week, other events over-shadowed the ominous trends in infection and mortality rates of the COVID-19 epidemic across the U.S. During much of the week, the tone within American society seemed to turn noticeably pessimistic with a sense that the United States is losing control of the epidemic.

The Trump Amdinistration continues to blame China for the lagging performance of the United States in managing this health crisis. Congressional allies of the President implicitly blame the Black Live Matter protests by citing the pandemic as a pretext to suppress them. Dr Anthony Fauci is hedging on vaccinations.

The production and distribution of a vaccine will take time after it is developped and tested. The ability to scale production may already be in place but that optimism could reflect over-statement by the Trump Administration. The distribution could take longer. On a brighter note, Dr Fauci has stated that 250,000 Americans have indicated a willingness to participate in testing studies of the vaccine.

While the rural states, predominantly in the South and Southwest, appear to be leading the second wave of coronavirus infections, at least one Northeast state, New Jersey,reported a rash of new cases likely due to house parties among shore-line vacationers. The dilemma between economics and the once-in-a-century health crisis became clear this week with data indicating that the economy fared worse the people has feared during the Spring.

Testing is extensive but inadequate in view of the loosening control of the United States Government (U.S.G.) over the epidemic. Toward remedying ghat deficiency to permit contact tracing the National Intstitute of Heatlth announced investments of $250 million in twenty companies to accelerate development and roll-out of new testing technologies. The good news is that the five ‘spike states’ reviewed each week show modest improvements, though mortality growth remains high.

Summary Statistics
Thirty-three states and six territories common-sized to U.S. population:

• average of 152,858 deaths versus 154,243 actual deaths nationally
• median common-sized death toll for the states studied = 100,711
• New Jersey and New York with the highest death tolls relative to population
• Vermont, Idaho, and Utah the safest states
• critical care down 2% nationally over past week to 18,750
• classifications reconfigured to 05apr20 projections for one year mortality (through 28feb21)
• said projections with best case of 141,994 deaths and base case of 335,301 deaths
• Vermont and Idaho: Very Low (three in sub-set)
• California, Kentucky, and Virginia: Low (thirteen in sub-set)
• Colorado: Moderate (eight in sub-set)
• Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and Pennsylvania: High (six in sub-set)
• Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York: Very High (four in sub-set)
• national death toll up 6% during week to 154,243 (versus 4% the previous week)
• deaths accelerating in rural areas under-served by medical 1st responders, hospitals and Medicaid
• eleven states above the national death toll of 154,243; twenty-three below

Five states tracked each week (AZ, CA, FL, TX, OK):

• moderating growth rate in confirmed cases except Oklahoma 
• slight moderation in the the growth in deaths but still in upper doble-digits
• growth rate in deaths overtaking growth rate in cases with due to mortality lag-time
• mortality run rates increasing in Florida and Texas due to moderation in cases
• concern data understatement in Florida
• skewed data in Texas to new measurement calculation for deaths
• Oklahoma more typical of rural states with later mortality acceleration