NedNotes (not blog): New Years 2021 COVIData sweep

In tearful remembrance of five great citizens of the United States of America. Three native Americans, one Hispanic, and one African American. Ranging in age from thirty-six to eighty-six years old; average age of sixty-four; median of sixty-five. A Sioux tribal Chairman, a COVID Nurse, and a foreman; from New México to California.

B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front): With old predictions firmly in the rear-view mirror and leading indicators not showing much hope for immediate improvement, Americans brace for a difficult January.

INTRODUCTION
A brief review of the data for the week as a supplement to the Family Cluster Analysis of New Year's Day. The week has shown a deterioration from the prior week as the Christmas spike is just beginning. Hopefully, the numbers will calm down in February. Base-case projections for total deaths during the first year have been overtake more than two months ahead of the end-date. Hospitals remain strained despite marginal improvement in critical care capacity.  

OVERVIEW of DATA and the WEEK
Summary. Some notables have departed while the nation braces for the fall-out of Christmas holidays. The country may see peak daily death tolls of 4,000 to 5,000, perhaps more. General deterioration of coronavirus conditions during the week; likely to be a harbinger of three or four harder weeks to come. States to watch by order of urgency:

1. California for her population, climbing positivity rates, tight hospital constraints, rapid growth rates in both cases and fatalities, as well as the spread of the virus from Baja California;
2. Arizona for poor testing results and capacity, accelerating case-loads and death tolls slow to moderate as well as tightening hospital capacity and proximity to México;
3. Pennsylvania for the worst performance by far in the Northeast, together with a dubiously timed relaxation of restrictions when control of the coronavirus contagion in the Keystone State is far from established;
4. Tennessee for high and deteriorating positivity rates, highly strained hospital capacity, as well as accelerating weekly death tolls (50% above those of the rest of the country);
5. New México for growing case confirmations, a quickening mortality rate, hospital depletion and proximity to México;
6. Arkansas for a high mortality run and positivity rates as well as growing burden on intensive care capacity; as well as,
7. Nevada for high positivity and growing fatality rates burdening a limited testing capacity and shrinking hospital availability.

Sad days. This week, the COVID-19 plague hit home to the hearts of many baby-bummers when America’s ‘girl next door’, Dawn Wells, who played Mary Ann on “Gilligan’s Island” died at eighty-two years old. The coronavirus killed a forty-one year old, perfectly healthy Representative recently elected from Louisiana. Joining these two famous virus victims are 'Tom Terrific' Seaver and gold medalist from the 1976 Summer Olympics, Arnie Robinson, Jr.

Emerging trends. The week between Christmas and New Year’s usually slows a bit, but the coronavirus contagion has not slowed as much as hoped, leaving hospital capacity strained for the expected spike over the next two to three weeks. Tennessee is one of the harder stricken states during this holiday season. California is among the states facing the ‘Italian dilemma’ of last Spring, of possibly having to ration health-care thereby leaving others to die.

Some courts are ruling against insurers disputing indemnities due under business interruption policies (i.e., covering for lost income from sales that other wise should have occurred). Insurers in North Carolina have failed to carry the day in arguing that a COVID epidemic is unforeseen disaster and, as a ‘force majeure’ event, excluded from coverage.

Politics. Trump’s checking out in mid-October, together with a lack of resources and resourcefulness in many states, have aggravated this spike possibly locking in half a million deaths by March 2021, though one should not overlook the accomplishment of the Administration’s leadership in developing three or four vaccines in nine months. With others ready to test, as the Food and Drug Admin. explains.

Center for Disease Control vaccination data underlying this New York Times chart.

As Trump claims victory over the epidemic and in the election alike, President Biden plans to honour the 350-400,000 COVID victims (by 20jan21) during his inauguration address. Meanwhile Trump’s self-congratulatory claims about his results sure look like something else, at least in Tennessee, Florida, and Puerto Rico. Worst of all, the epidemic has hurt our most vulnerable segments – the elderly, Blacks and Native Americans – the most. Currently, the nationwide infection rate among inmates is 20%.

CLUSTER FACTS
Introduction. The U.K. mutation coming into the U.S. is more annoying than alarming; it is one of 50,000 mutations against which current vaccines will most likely work as effectively. Not much in the last twenty-four hours.

Baltimore-Annapolis. The National Football League (American Rugby) has fined the Baltimore Ravens $250,000 for failing to exercise sufficient vigilance against four strains of the coronavirus.

Boston and the Cape. Reports emerging about the U.K. mutation circulating in the Bay State.

Chicago proper. Less than 1% of Illini have received the first of two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine.

Colorado state-wide. An activated National Guardsman contracted the first known case of the U.K. mutation when he was assisting an elderly care facility in a rural area. Dolores County has low penetration and no deaths.

Detroit Metro. Motor City remembers her own lost to the COVID epidemic.

New York METRO. Brooklyn’s mortality run rate is beginning to converge with the rest of New York City (i.e., at 6.2% versus 5.8%).

Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Former Governor Richard Thornburgh has died at the age of eighty-eight. A Midwestern Republican; no evidence that the death was COVID driven. This statement is inserted as a tribute to one of the finer politicians ever produced by my home state.

Tunisia and México: If Tunisia were same population as the United States, she would suffer one-third the fatalities despite a 3.4% mortality run rate. Common-sizing México’s fatalities with the U.S. population would yield a death toll of 327,069 on a fatality rate of 8.8%.

METHODOLOGY 
Since this data sweep serves as a information supplement without very little research, this week provides an opportunity to clean up the presentation through the following changes. For informational purposes, this text will follow the second table on thirty-eight states and five territories in subsequent weeks. For comprehensive explanations on methodology and purpose, please revert to Appendix I. 

1st, the two averages of weekly growth rates for the ten bellwether states are clarified in the Appendix. Essentially, the geometric or compound average growth rate is a smoothed average that allows for growth-on-growth increases (i.e., similar to compounding interest). The time weighted weekly averages are a trend-weighted average of each week's particular growth rates. While the compound rate is theoretically more defensible, comparing the two averages gives one a sense of more recent trends and volatilities.

2nd, in the 3table (of thirty-eight states and five territories), the risk classifications  -- of very low; low; moderate; high; and, very high -- remain the same. The parameters, however, are loosened to reflect nine months of experience. The new parameters center upon the first year base case fatality level of 335,301 souls that I forecast eight months ago, together with the updated projection from the University of Washington of 470,974 deaths. On 04dec20, the old and new parameters are applied to facilitate  transition.

3rd,changes in how positivity rates are presented in the 38+ now align the data with the original intention behind presenting them. The intent here is to show whether positivity is trending up or down and to what degree. The parameters are loosened to match the practical reporting constraints and data lags facing most states. 

States with changed positivity rates of less than 10% up (i.e., worsening) or down (i.e., improving) are deemed unchanged and the information unformatted (i.e., appearing in plain black font). The formatting differentiates deteriorations from improvements in the color of the font between 10-20%. Bold fonts indicate material deteriorations or improvements of more than 20%. 

Keep in mind that these percentage changes are based on percentages; percentages of percentages can attenuate the utility of data.

4th, a refresher on the assessment of a state’s testing capacity, again on the 38+ table. The data pivot off of the tests per million people expressed as a percentage. The symbology uses hand gestures to assessment the degree of testing capability and commitment relative to the national average for the week under review. Colors indicate whether testing is declining (red font) or improving (blue font) when a states results place its commitment to a new category of, specifically:

• 👎👎 meaning a state's testing level materially below the concurrent national benchmark (i.e., > 15 points below);
• 👎 meaning a state's testing is noticeably below the weekly national average (i.e., 5-15 points below);
• 👈 meaning a state's testing activity is slightly lower than average (i.e., < 5 points below);
• 👉👈 meaning a state's testing level is basically equal to that of the nation;
• 👉 meaning a state's testing level is < 5 points above the benchmark;
• 👍 meaning a state's testing activity is 10-15 points above the weekly national level; and,
• 👍👍 meaning a state's testing commitment is > 15 points above the concurrent average.