NedNotes (not blog): 26feb21 COVIData Sweep

 In remembrance of five of the Americans who departed this week, spilling over half a million COVID deaths. Three men and two women; three African Americans; a rancher, a veteran from the war in Viêt Nam, an executive turned reverend, and a jazz pianist; an immigrant from Liberia; from Rhode Island to Utah; age range of thirty-seven to eighty-two; average age of sixty-three and median of seventy-two.

B.L.U.F. (bottom-line, up-front): penultimate data sweep. The last one will contain my thoughts on the eleven months I have been writing this blog.

INTRODUCTION
Another post-peak week. The momentum turned mid-week with a slight up-tick in new deaths. Two new variants discovered in New York City and Tunis, Tunisia (indicating a proliferation of variants permutating with mutations); each has created concern of anti-body evasion. First year fatalities look to be in line with the lower end of the revised projections from the University of Washington and the middle of the short-term forecasts from the Centers for Disease Control (i.e., the C.D.C.). Tallies exceed my projections of eleven months ago by as much as 60%; those erroneous numbers represented 1.7-3.3x Trump Admin. Projections at the time. Tentative indicators of increased lethality of current variants and mutations partnered with them. One of seven Americans with at least one jab; domestic and global vaccine equity becoming urgent.

OVERVIEW-in-BRIEF
Key calculations for the week:

• hospitalizations down 15% to 51,116;
• active cases down by 4% to 9.1 million;
• critical care patients down 12% to 15,478;
• new cases for the week up 7% to half a million;
• periodic mortality run rate for week of 2.6% versus 2.9% the previous week;
• 4.2% positivity rate on testing versus 4.0% for the previous week;
• new weekly fatalities up 8% to 15,148; as well as,
• average daily new cases up 1% to 70,143 confirmed.

Key findings for the week.

1. Widespread improvements have been recorded except in VA (15% growth in fatalities, principally in NOVA suburbs), California (7.4%), as well as Wisconsin and Oklahoma (4.5% each)
2. Iowa has tripled her testing capacity in one week to contain fatality growth to 2.4% for the week.
3. Minnesota (0.8% fatality growth vs 3% for U.S.), Colorado (0.9%), and Michigan (1.0%) have turned in stellar performances. 
4. President Biden and Dr Fauci urge long-term vigilance notwithstanding viral containment proven by vaccines.

CLUSTER FACTS
Summary. Inner cities tend to run higher test positivity and lower vaccination rates due to population density. The concern for each cluster is the plethora of variants with mutations shared by specific variants. Two more variants were detected this week in New York and Tunisia in addition to the new ones from the U.K., L.A., and Brazil. The mutation (i.e., change in specific proteins) common to these variants provide the threat. Each variant has enhanced vaccine resistance. The United States still has work to do; Tunisia and México cry out for cross-border vaccine equity, through direct distribution or compulsory licensing, not only as a matter of morality, but one of pragmatism.

Baltimore-Annapolis: 4.7% positivity rate; 18% I.C.U. availability; 13.1% ≥ one jab. With variants making their way into Maryland, Governor Hogan partners with Johns Hopkins and University of Maryland (Baltimore) to double genomic surveillance to set best practice levels. Frustrated with what they view as a sub-optimal vaccine roll-out, Democratic legislators working to codify a comprehensive vaccine plan. Anne Arundel County easing back to Maryland’s minimum standards.

Boston & the Cape: 1.8% positivity rate; 25% I.C.U. availability; 16.6% (MA) and 6.1% ≥ one jab in Boston metro and 6.2% on the Cape. (Please not that last week’s statistic confused shipments with inoculations.) Commonwealth will put a Phase IV ‘Spring’ in its step by allowing sports events to allow fans in one of every eight seats; indoor entertainment venues to re-open to 40-50% capacity next week. Boston public schools return to the class-room for Kindergarten through the third grade. The unbearable suspense of cancelled seconds pokes. Capacity constraints holding up some two-thirds of inoculations.

Chicago proper: 3.7% positivity rate; 35% I.C.U. availability; 12.8% ≥ one jab. Chicago easing quarantine restrictions for eighteen states; some play-grounds re-opening. Chicago public schools edging toward required vaccinations of all teachers. The windy city hosts a teen ‘vaccine angel’ to assist senior citizens in securing inoculations.

Colorado state-wide: 3.8% positivity rate (Denver); 30% I.C.U. availability (Denver); 14.9% ≥ one jab. (state-wide). Disturbing side effect for women that could overlook cancer or cause undue stress. Vaccinations extending to essential front-line workers and others with co-morbidities. Dolores County with 1.3% positivity rate.

Detroit Metro: 4.7% positivity rate; 29% I.C.U. availability; 9.8% ≥ one jab. Michigan State University following the lead of Massachusetts monitoring sewage as indicator for true prevalence (i.e., confirmed and undetected) of COVID. Detroit’s economy as the biggest victim of the coronavirus. Governor Whitmer preparing to ease restrictions. State-of-the-art air filters being installed in Wayne County prisons. Motown people sixty and older now eligible for vaccine.

New York METRO: 6.7% positivity rate; 32% I.C.U. availability; 12.2% ≥ one jab.

• Brooklyn: 6.5% positivity rate; 17% I.C.U. availability; 8.5% ≥ one jab.
• The City that Never Sleeps: 7.1% positivity rate; 23% I.C.U. availability; 11.0% ≥ one jab.
• Westchester, Hudson River, Connecticut: 5.8% positivity rate; 37% I.C.U. availability; 14.4% ≥ one jab.
• Northern Joy-zee: 7.9% positivity rate; 49% I.C.U. availability; 11.9% ≥ one jab.

Another variant possibly anti-body resistant, originating in Empire State some time in November criss-crossing Gotham City; the mutation is a characteristic of a variant that enables the latter to “dodge” the anti-bodies. Think diabolically dynamic duo. The secret to surviving both the Spanish Flu and COVID according to N.J. suburbanite. N.Y.C. middle schools with partial return; so far, so good. Two of the five deadliest counties in the country, Brooklyn and Queens open New York State’s largest vaccination centers; Yonkers hub-site for Westchester. Connecticut vaccinating by age, not occupation. Steady improvement on Long Island and among New Jersey suburbs, despite rare home-grown variant showing up in the latter.

Philadelphia Metro: 5.8% positivity rate; 29% I.C.U. availability; 8.4% and 12.4% ≥ one jab including / excluding Philly proper. Things looking up-beat for Philly-Jersey area. National Guard unit coming in to ratchet up inner city vaccination rates; Black M.D.s starting to overcome skepticism. Despite N.J. suburbs drifting above 5% positivity rate, infection rates are declining. Vaccine equity and the lag in the City of Brotherly Love generates ongoing concern.

Pittsburgh Metro: 6.3% positivity rate; 26% I.C.U. availability; 12.6% ≥ one jab. We all lost a class act as anything-but-radical weather-man in Mr Bob Kudzma departed this week; there is no indication of a coronavirus connection with Mr Kudzma’s death but a tribute is in order to the PGH of the old order. PGH awaits return to some normality with the J.&J. vaccine anticipated as reasonably effective, easier to use. COVID Spring training at P.N.B. baseball park. Frustration with vaccine roll-out in the burgh.

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MÉXICO: 8.9% mortality run rate; 38% positivity rate; 13% I.C.U. availability; 1.5% with one jab; 9,339 deaths re-stated for U.S. population = 473,887 (twenty-second worst of fifty states and comparable to death toll in Florida). Through COVAX, México using Sputnik vaccine (400,000 doses). Vaccinations lag in Latin America; México far behind Chile’s vaccination rate of 10.9% and Puerto Rico’s distribution of 544,000 doses (up to 17% of the population). Conditions improving in Tijuana; not so in Querétaro, Guanajuato, and Puebla with ‘high risk’ ratings.

LA TUNISIE: 3.4% mortality run rate; 18% positivity rate; unknown I.C.U. availability; 0% one jab; 7,897 deaths restated for U.S. population = 220,736 (seventh best of fifty states and similar to Washington State). The double-layered grief of total isolation from a loved one’s death and burial. With a new ‘Tunis variant’ detected in Tunisia with at least one fatality, Algeria seals frontière hermetically and immediately. Vaccine deliveries to Tunisia still delayed.

METHODOLOGY 
Since this data sweep serves as a information supplement without very little research, this week provides an opportunity to clean up the presentation through the following changes. For informational purposes, this text will follow the second table on thirty-eight states and five territories in subsequent weeks. For comprehensive explanations on methodology and purpose, please revert to Appendix I. 

1st, please remember that percentages for 'population tested' implicitly assumes that anyone taking a COVID test does so only one time. Many people are getting multiple tests. For example, for various reasons, I have had five tests. That would count as five people taking tests for the datum calculated for Maryland. My S.W.A.G. (scientifically wild-assed guess) is that a more accurate level of people actually tested is half, or less, of the percentage cited in the ‘38+ table’ above.

2nd, the two averages of weekly growth rates for the ten bellwether states are clarified in the Appendix. Essentially, the geometric or compound average growth rate is a smoothed average that allows for growth-on-growth increases (i.e., similar to compounding interest). The time weighted weekly averages are a trend-weighted average of each week's particular growth rates. While the compound rate is theoretically more defensible, comparing the two averages gives one a sense of more recent trends and volatilities.

3rd, in the '38+' table (of thirty-eight states and five territories), the risk classifications  -- of very low; low; moderate; high; and, very high -- remain the same. The parameters, however, are loosened to reflect nine months of experience. The new parameters center upon the first year base case fatality level of 335,301 souls that I forecast eight months ago, together with projections of November 2020 from the University of Washington of 470,974 deaths. On 04dec20, the old and new parameters are applied to facilitate  transition.

4th, changes in how positivity rates are presented in the '38+' table above now align the data with the original intention behind presenting them. The intent here is to show whether positivity is trending up or down and to what degree. The parameters are loosened to match the practical reporting constraints and data lags facing most states. 

States with changed positivity rates of less than 10% up (i.e., worsening) or down (i.e., improving) are deemed unchanged and the information unformatted (i.e., appearing in plain black font). The formatting differentiates deteriorations from improvements in the color of the font between 10-20%. Bold fonts indicate material deteriorations or improvements of more than 20%. 

Keep in mind that these percentage changes are based on percentages; percentages of percentages can attenuate the utility of data.

5th, a refresher on the assessment of a state’s testing capacity, again on the 38+ table. The data pivot off of the tests per million people expressed as a percentage. The symbology uses hand gestures to assessment the degree of testing capability and commitment relative to the national average for the week under review. Colors indicate whether testing is declining (red font) or improving (blue font) when a states results place its commitment to a new category of, specifically:

• 👎👎 meaning a state's testing level materially below the concurrent national benchmark (i.e., > 15 points below);
• 👎 meaning a state's testing is noticeably below the weekly national average (i.e., 5-15 points below);
• 👈 meaning a state's testing activity is slightly lower than average (i.e., < 5 points below);
• 👉👈 meaning a state's testing level is basically equal to that of the nation;
• 👉 meaning a state's testing level is < 5 points above the benchmark;
• 👍 meaning a state's testing activity is 10-15 points above the weekly national level; and,
• 👍👍 meaning a state's testing commitment is > 15 points above the concurrent average.